India will be a $26 trillion economy by 2047: Report
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New Delhi, Jan 19: The Indian economy is likely to reach the $26 trillion mark by 2047, the 100th year of the country’s independence, according to an EY report. It also said that the per capita income is also expected to increase to $15,000, putting the country among the ranks of developed economies.
The report, India@100: Realizing the potential of a $26 trillion economy, was launched by union railway minister Ashwini Vaishnaw on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum at Davos, Switzerland.
The report underscores the growth trajectory of the Indian economy which is projected to be the highest for any large economy over the coming decades. It also cites key enablers that will underpin the country’s development over the next 25 years that will unleash business opportunities across sectors and will significantly enhance India’s global competitiveness. It recommends ensuring macroeconomic stability and resilience and continued thrust on reforms, which will be especially relevant in the backdrop of ongoing geo-political conflicts, inflationary pressures, and slowing global growth. Launching the report, Ashwini Vaishnaw said, “In line with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision, India has commenced its journey into ‘Amrit Kaal’, a uniquely auspicious period, representing India’s opportunity to herald a new world era. There is an unparalleled impetus for developing world-class infrastructure supported by growth and investment-oriented policies and reforms to establish India as a manufacturing and technology hub. Over the next decade, India will also play an integral role in leading the world into a sustainable future along with being the fastest-growing economy, said Vaishnaw, who is also the union minister for communication and IT. Carmine Di Sibio, Global Chairman and CEO, of EY said: “As this study shows, India offers a unique investment opportunity as the world struggles with heightened consumer demands and increased geo-political pressures. With the biggest talent pool, an accelerated pace of economic reforms, breakthroughs in energy transition, and rapid digital transformation, the long-term growth trajectory is clearly positive. India demonstrates the immense potential and is positioned to make a truly transformative impact on the world stage."
Rajiv Memani, Chairman and Managing Partner, of EY India noted that the entrepreneurial spirit of the private sector and policy measures of the last few years in the domains of fiscal, digital, and physical infrastructure, and social inclusion have uniquely positioned India for higher and sustainable growth. “India is already among the fastest growing economy globally and is now at an inflection point where a new era of growth drivers will emerge. The next 25 years – the ‘Amrit Kaal’ – must bring an equal and strong focus on providing inclusive opportunities to all sections of the population, including women and those economically and socially disadvantaged," Mewani noted. Using International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) medium-term projections and Organization for Economic Co-operation & Development (OECD)’s long-term forecasts, EY has made projections under alternative assumptions covering the period FY2023-FY2061. For the period FY2023 to FY2028, IMF’s projections pertaining to India’s real and nominal GDP growth as well as its nominal savings rate have been used. With India’s real GDP growth forecasted to average 6.5% during this five-year period, it is expected to be moderately affected by global economic events as compared to the rest of the world. The long-term projections beyond FY2028 are based on the OECD’s methodology with suitable modifications made with respect to India’s growth profile. Under the most preferred scenario, India is likely to cross the critical thresholds of $5 trillion, $10 trillion, and $20 trillion in market exchange rate terms, in FY2028, FY2036, and FY2045, respectively.